This is so much superior to Jared Diamond. I feel like, just based on the little you have said, that Diamond should be repeatedly flogged with this book.
The acquaintance I mentioned that does collapse studies, while telling me that Tainter is still well-regarded mentioned that no one pays any attention to Diamond.
I think it’s an interesting test case to examine iterations of ostensibly continuous societies. For example: China. How many Chinas have there been? Everyone subject to cycles of collapse. But China still is, in some form that is recognized. And, at least according to the CCP (which should be considered dubious for self-interested reasons) continuous for the last 5,000 years. So did Chinese civilization collapse or not?
Ditto with places more familiar to Westerners like England or France. How many Frances have there been? How many Englands, United Kingdoms, Britains? Are they the same civilization? If so, why? And is a place like Italy or Germany or Greece different? The latter have seen many collapses and then re-emergences in very different forms. Was Prussia German? Was Ancient Greek Turkey or Italy Greek?
These are salient questions because the popular imagination among collapse enthusiasts or Doomers seeing collapse as negation. The United States and America will disappear, largely without a trace, memory, or continuity.
But Ancient Rome didn’t disappear! In its Eastern iteration continued for another millennia. And we still, today, many of us, speak its language in an evolved form, live under its legal structures, and even believe its religion.
Certainly these are all good points, but China has had many dynasties, and France is on it's fifth try at being a republic. Certainly I wouldn't argue that every iteration represents a collapse, but certainly the transition from the Ancien Régime to the revolution has to count. (The whole problem started because the kingdom was out of money.)
So as you say very interesting, and muddier than I would like. Also I've written several posts (for example: https://www.wearenotsaved.com/p/the-apocalypse-will-not-be-as-cool) on the topic you raise. Whatever collapse looks like, and whenever it happens (perhaps never) the US is not just going to disappear.
Collapse, especially if we're using it to describe a decrease in complexity of the type caused by shaking a bunch of gravel, is relative; in general we would see a change in American society from present circumstances to zero economic activity and roaming biker gangs as a "collapse" but an economic depression that we exit in the fires of war with civic society bleeding and dying and many formerly illegible voluntary functions now occupied by bureaucracy, well, maybe we would call that something else. Maybe we'd see it as an increase in complexity, confusing growth in scope with growth in agency. Maybe Herbert Hoover was right about everything.
This is so much superior to Jared Diamond. I feel like, just based on the little you have said, that Diamond should be repeatedly flogged with this book.
The acquaintance I mentioned that does collapse studies, while telling me that Tainter is still well-regarded mentioned that no one pays any attention to Diamond.
I think it’s an interesting test case to examine iterations of ostensibly continuous societies. For example: China. How many Chinas have there been? Everyone subject to cycles of collapse. But China still is, in some form that is recognized. And, at least according to the CCP (which should be considered dubious for self-interested reasons) continuous for the last 5,000 years. So did Chinese civilization collapse or not?
Ditto with places more familiar to Westerners like England or France. How many Frances have there been? How many Englands, United Kingdoms, Britains? Are they the same civilization? If so, why? And is a place like Italy or Germany or Greece different? The latter have seen many collapses and then re-emergences in very different forms. Was Prussia German? Was Ancient Greek Turkey or Italy Greek?
These are salient questions because the popular imagination among collapse enthusiasts or Doomers seeing collapse as negation. The United States and America will disappear, largely without a trace, memory, or continuity.
But Ancient Rome didn’t disappear! In its Eastern iteration continued for another millennia. And we still, today, many of us, speak its language in an evolved form, live under its legal structures, and even believe its religion.
Certainly these are all good points, but China has had many dynasties, and France is on it's fifth try at being a republic. Certainly I wouldn't argue that every iteration represents a collapse, but certainly the transition from the Ancien Régime to the revolution has to count. (The whole problem started because the kingdom was out of money.)
So as you say very interesting, and muddier than I would like. Also I've written several posts (for example: https://www.wearenotsaved.com/p/the-apocalypse-will-not-be-as-cool) on the topic you raise. Whatever collapse looks like, and whenever it happens (perhaps never) the US is not just going to disappear.
Collapse, especially if we're using it to describe a decrease in complexity of the type caused by shaking a bunch of gravel, is relative; in general we would see a change in American society from present circumstances to zero economic activity and roaming biker gangs as a "collapse" but an economic depression that we exit in the fires of war with civic society bleeding and dying and many formerly illegible voluntary functions now occupied by bureaucracy, well, maybe we would call that something else. Maybe we'd see it as an increase in complexity, confusing growth in scope with growth in agency. Maybe Herbert Hoover was right about everything.
You could try reading the very first post...
https://www.wearenotsaved.com/p/we-are-not-saved