Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting
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If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post: Or download the MP3 I. As near as I can reconstruct, sometime in the mid-80s Phillip Tetlock decided to conduct a study on the accuracy of people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends”. The study lasted for around twenty years and involved 284 people. If you’re reading this blog you probably already know what the outcome of that study was, but just in case you don’t or need a reminder here’s a summary.
Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting
Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of…
Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting
If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post: Or download the MP3 I. As near as I can reconstruct, sometime in the mid-80s Phillip Tetlock decided to conduct a study on the accuracy of people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends”. The study lasted for around twenty years and involved 284 people. If you’re reading this blog you probably already know what the outcome of that study was, but just in case you don’t or need a reminder here’s a summary.