My Final Case Against Superforecasting (with criticisms considered, objections noted, and assumptions buttressed)
www.wearenotsaved.com
If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post: Or download the MP3 I. One of my recent posts, Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting, generated quite a bit of pushback. And given that in-depth debate is always valuable and that this subject, at least for me, is a particularly important one. I thought I’d revisit it, and attempt to further answer some of the objections that were raised the first time around. While also clarifying some points that people misinterpreted or gave insufficient weight to.
My Final Case Against Superforecasting (with criticisms considered, objections noted, and assumptions buttressed)
My Final Case Against Superforecasting (with…
My Final Case Against Superforecasting (with criticisms considered, objections noted, and assumptions buttressed)
If you prefer to listen rather than read, this blog is available as a podcast here. Or if you want to listen to just this post: Or download the MP3 I. One of my recent posts, Pandemic Uncovers the Limitations of Superforecasting, generated quite a bit of pushback. And given that in-depth debate is always valuable and that this subject, at least for me, is a particularly important one. I thought I’d revisit it, and attempt to further answer some of the objections that were raised the first time around. While also clarifying some points that people misinterpreted or gave insufficient weight to.