Meta Discussion and Book News
Things are changing. Hopefully in good ways.
The actual book will have illustrations done by actual humans. But I haven’t got around to that yet. For now this is something from an AI. You might be surprised how difficult it is was to generate.
Apologies for the delay between posts. I understand it wasn’t really all that long, but I had made a commitment to do better, so it was a longer delay than I would have preferred. The good news is that part of the reason for the delay is that I’ve been busily working on my first book, and I’m ready to start posting stuff from the book! This development is going to occasion a few changes:
1- Let’s start with the biggest. I am going to turn on paid subscriptions. What do you get for being a paid subscriber that you don’t get if you’re a free subscriber? One, and only one thing: the ability to comment on book chapters when I post them. Everything else will continue to be free.
2- Today I’m publishing a section explaining how the book is going to be set up (more below), but then the plan is to publish one chapter every two weeks. I think I have enough of a head start and enough momentum to keep that up. And making a public commitment will help motivate me.
3- This should not impact the rate at which I post other stuff. (Which is admittedly sporadic, but it shouldn’t get any more sporadic.)
So that’s how the book is going to change, or not change things going forward. But I assume you’re also curious what it’s about. I believe I’ve mentioned the subject several times already, but it’s a book which makes the case that Tetlockian superforecasting is harmful. That the discipline encourages people to focus more on the status quo continuing than on potential Black Swans. If you don’t know what superforecasting is, this book will explain all that. You would be correct to consider this a somewhat unusual thing to write a book about.
However unusual the subject is, the format of the book is even more unusual. I’ve decided to try a sort of modularization—a setup where each chapter is basically its own independent blog post. Perhaps you can immediately see how this would work, but if not I explain it in the opening section of the book. The section I’m going to publish right now:
What Sort of Book Is This?
Read this only if this is the first book in this format you’ve encountered.
Feel free to skip ahead the minute you “get it”.
“Should Have Been a Post”
Perhaps you’re familiar with this tweet?
Even if you’re unfamiliar, you almost certainly have some experience with the phenomenon Batnick is referring to. Left unsaid, but obvious nonetheless, he’s also saying that most books shouldn’t have been written at all. Given this, why on earth would I include it at the start of a book?
I include it because I’m delusional enough to think that I have come up with a format which provides the best of both worlds: a book with all the brevity of a blog post, while also providing a blog post that has all the depth and breadth of a book. Which is to say, this format solves many of the problems Batnick alludes to. Which problems, you ask?
The Problems I’m Trying to Solve
The problem with books: I’m ashamed to admit how many Substacks I subscribe to. I would guess that many people are in a similar position. I don’t know for sure if this has reduced the number of non-fiction books that get read. You would think it would have to, but perhaps it’s a virtuous cycle, the more non-fiction people read, the more they want to read.
What is clear, not only with respect to Substack, but with respect to everything, is that attention is more precious than ever. And if most books truly should be blog posts then there’s the strong possibility that reading many books is a significant waste of time and attention.
The problem with posts: On the other hand, if you’re just writing a blog post, you’re mostly preaching to the choir. You don’t have enough space to persuade doubters, there’s only enough to talk to those with whom you’re already in conversation. On top of this is the potential for audience capture—the possibility that you’ve built an audience tied to a specific point of view and now you’re unable to adjust that without losing that audience. Books allow greater latitude to escape that capture and persuade doubters.
Also while it appears that an individual post represents a lower barrier to entry, it could actually be the opposite. Someone can expect to pick up a book not knowing much about the subject beforehand, but if you subscribe to a Substack you’re jumping into a river, and not even at the ideal point.
Perhaps someone has an objection or a question at some point while reading a post. Perhaps you already answered it, perhaps not. Maybe you include a link to that answer. Maybe you forgot. Even if you include a link, what are the chances they’ll follow it? As a general matter, deeper exploration is less likely to happen if you call something a “post” vs. calling it a “book”.
The Best of Both Worlds?
How do I solve these problems? “Should Have Been a Post” Books all start with a Chapter Zero. Chapter Zero is basically just a blog post — a tight summation of the book’s point/thesis/raison d’etre. It’s the core argument. What Chapter Zero does not do is try to cover all possible objections, or include every helpful anecdote or example I’ve ever collected. It provides just enough foundation to orient you, but doesn’t attempt to tackle the entire backstory. It assumes you have a reasonable familiarity with the basics.
As such, Chapter Zero may be all that you need to read. In fact that’s the goal. However in the event that you have:
Objections
Assumptions you wish to challenge
History you wish to explore
Topics you’d like to see elaborated
Et Cetera
Then that’s where the rest of the book comes in. Each additional chapter will:
Answer various objections
Explain any important assumptions
Cover the relevant history
Elaborate on significant topics
Probe all of the various nooks and crannies
You can certainly read every last one of these chapters, but you’re allowed, even encouraged, to be selective: picking only those chapters necessary to plug in the holes of your knowledge or buttress the perceived gaps in the original argument. Also as each chapter is designed to be self-contained you can do this without having to worry that the information you want is scattered amongst all the chapters.
For those that think most books should just be blog posts? This one is. And those who agree, but want the option for further posts expanding on some particular aspect of the original post? It’s that too. And for those who want a comprehensive book which dissects the topic from all the different angles? It’s that too.
And for those who think that most blog posts should be just a tweet? I do that as well…
The Case in a Tweet:
Our key difficulty isn’t predicting the future; it’s surviving it
I ended there with a little taste of where we’re going. If that sounds like something you’re interested in supporting, consider becoming a paid subscriber. If it all sounds really dumb then it’s even more important to become a paid subscriber so you can tell me exactly how dumb it is.